Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wehda Club have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ahli Jeddah. A 0.60 PPG lead over Al Wehda Club (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Wehda Club in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0 for Al Wehda Club and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al Wehda Club 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Al Wehda Club 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.25 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.109 / defence 0.868 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.945 / defence 1.440. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.222. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.440 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 45 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 19% | Al Wehda Club 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Al Wehda Club 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Wehda Club 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 19% | Al Wehda Club 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.25 / Al Wehda Club 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.109 / def 0.868 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.945 / def 1.440 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al Wehda Club xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 66% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 1 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.94x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.29
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.26
1.00
Al Wehda Club xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
61.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.00 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 24W 10D 11L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 12W 9D 24L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.10 PPG from 21 outings (13W 5D 3L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 3D 14L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.33 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 12W 9D 24L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.10 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, Al Wehda Club 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 57% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 52% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 57% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Wehda Club 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Wehda Club 1-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.25 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.00 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Wehda Club landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.94 / defence 1.44, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 19% | Al Wehda Club 16%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%, Al Wehda Club 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.