Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 21 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.00 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2025, ended 4–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 45% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.039 / defence 0.900 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.931 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.543. Data: 42 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 42 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.039 / def 0.900 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.931 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 21 November 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 38% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.04) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.93x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.60
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.29 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 25W 8D 9L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form line: 26W 7D 9L from 42 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.02 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L).
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 10W 4D 7L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.62 scored and 0.90 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 25W 8D 9L in their last 42 games (1.98 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 26W 7D 9L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 48% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 48% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 48% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.98 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.