Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.20 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Al-Hazm 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 xG and Al-Hazm 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.323 / defence 0.828 | Al-Hazm attack 0.936 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.400. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 35 Al-Hazm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hazm 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 / Al-Hazm 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.323 / def 0.828 | Al-Hazm attack 0.936 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Hazm xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 10 September 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 58% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.32x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.94x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.60
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.05
1.08
Al-Hazm xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
35.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.08 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 26W 6D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 12W 9D 14L from 35 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.65 PPG from 17 outings (14W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 6D 7L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.14 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 26W 6D 3L in their last 35 games (2.40 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.65 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%, Al-Hazm 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 59% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 59% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 59% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.