Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Fayha to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ahli Jeddah have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Al-Fayha have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2026, ended 3–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Fayha trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Fayha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.39 xG and Al-Fayha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / defence 0.752 | Al-Fayha attack 0.722 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.606 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 45 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Fayha 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al-Fayha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.39 / Al-Fayha 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / def 0.752 | Al-Fayha attack 0.722 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 72% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 6W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.61) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
72%
1.40
20%
5.04
9%
11.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.17
0.78
Al-Fayha xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
11.60
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
9%
10.94
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
126.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.78 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 31W 6D 6L from 43 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 20L across 43 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 17W 3D 0L from 20 games — 2.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 2W 5D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.19 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 31W 6D 6L in their last 43 games (2.30 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.70 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 55% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 55% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.