Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Fateh and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% versus Al-Fateh 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Fateh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.546 / defence 0.687 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.411. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.546 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.687 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 64 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Fateh 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 / Al-Fateh 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.546 / def 0.687 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al-Fateh xG
50%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 74% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.49. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.80x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.99
9%
10.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.27
0.78
Al-Fateh xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
10.99
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
8%
12.03
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
1%
132.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.78 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 42W 10D 12L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Fateh's form line: 19W 15D 30L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.32 PPG from 31 outings (22W 6D 3L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 8D 17L from 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 67%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 42W 10D 12L in their last 64 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 19W 15D 30L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.32 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 48% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 48% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.78 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.55 / defence 0.69 against Al-Fateh attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al-Fateh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.