Abha 0-8 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Abha face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Nassr in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Abha (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Abha have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Abha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Abha's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) — Abha have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Nassr in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Nassr have the stronger record — 4 wins to Abha's 0, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Abha 2–2 Al-Nassr — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Nassr have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Abha — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 58% versus Al-Nassr 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 66% | Al-Nassr 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Abha surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.15 xG and Al-Nassr 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.902 / defence 0.964 | Al-Nassr attack 1.436 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.465. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.436, which lifts their away xG to 2.03. Data: built from Abha's last 55 games and Al-Nassr's last 55.
Result probabilities: Abha 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 57%. Fair-value odds: Abha 4.85 | Draw 4.46 | Al-Nassr 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.15 / 2.03) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Abha's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Abha 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Abha 1.15 / Al-Nassr 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.902 / def 0.964 | Al-Nassr attack 1.436 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Abha xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Al-Nassr xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Abha vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Abha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Abha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Abha 0 - 8 Al-Nassr.
Where is Abha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Abha vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 21% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Abha and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Abha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.44x) against Abha's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from Abha's last 55 games and Al-Nassr's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
21%
4.85
22%
4.46
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Abha xG
Total xG
3.18
2.03
Al-Nassr xG
4.85
21%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
3%
36.83
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Abha vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Abha and 2.03 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Abha's recent record stands at 16W 7D 32L from 55 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 39W 9D 7L across 55 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Abha have managed 13W 5D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 18W 4D 5L across their last 27 away games, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Abha are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.44 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Abha (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Abha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Abha vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Abha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 16W 7D 32L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 39W 9D 7L in their last 55 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.63 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Nassr have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won Abha 0-8 Al-Nassr on 2 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Abha
1
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Abha vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Nassr?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Abha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Abha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 63%, Al-Nassr 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Abha and 67% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Abha vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Abha and Al-Nassr matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Abha's recent matches and 44% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Abha and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Abha's matches and 67% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Abha and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Abha's recent matches and 70% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-8 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Abha 0-8 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.15 xG and Al-Nassr 2.03 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-8 for 8 actual goals. Abha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.03 projection by 6.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Al-Nassr attack 1.44 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 57%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 66%, Al-Nassr 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 8 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.