Al-Fayha 1-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al Wehda Club at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Al Wehda Club have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al Wehda Club's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Al-Fayha have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Wehda Club and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Al-Fayha 1–1 Al Wehda Club — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Wehda Club 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Wehda Club 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.25 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.824 / defence 1.097 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.627 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.465. Al Wehda Club's attack rating of 0.627 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 55 games and Al Wehda Club's last 55.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wehda Club 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Wehda Club 50% (last 10 away games).

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