Zenit 3-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zenit host Krylia Sovetov at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zenit — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Saint-Petersburg Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Zenit are significantly better at Saint-Petersburg Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zenit at 1.70 PPG versus Krylia Sovetov's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zenit register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Krylia Sovetov in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Zenit: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Krylia Sovetov, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 5–1 with Zenit winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zenit and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Zenit in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 49% versus Krylia Sovetov 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 58% | Krylia Sovetov 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 2.10 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.272 / defence 1.013 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.996 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.136. Zenit carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Zenit games / 41 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 58% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 19%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Krylia Sovetov 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 60% | Krylia Sovetov 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 58% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Zenit 2.10 / Krylia Sovetov 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.272 / def 1.013 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.996 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Zenit (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Krylia Sovetov xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Zenit 3 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 58% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zenit and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (4 meetings): Zenit 3W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov in?
Zenit (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zenit's attack at 1.27x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
58%
1.71
22%
4.47
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Zenit xG
Total xG
3.24
1.15
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
2%
42.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Zenit and 1.15 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Zenit have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 27W 9D 5L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 14W 11D 16L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zenit are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zenit have posted 2.42 PPG from 19 outings (15W 1D 3L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zenit are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.39 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 61%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 27W 9D 5L in their last 41 games (2.20 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Zenit's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.42 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Zenit or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zenit
3
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 47%, Krylia Sovetov 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Zenit and 68% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Zenit's games and 68% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Zenit's matches and 68% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Zenit and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Krylia Sovetov 3-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 2.10 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.15 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.27 / defence 1.01 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 58% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 19%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 58%, Krylia Sovetov 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.