Zenit 1-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zenit face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Zenit welcome Akhmat to Saint-Petersburg Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zenit have posted 10W 0D 0L at Saint-Petersburg Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Zenit have won 2, Akhmat 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Akhmat trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zenit 58% and Akhmat 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 58% | Akhmat 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 3.12 xG and Akhmat 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.807 / defence 0.673 | Akhmat attack 1.233 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.239. Zenit carry an above-average attack strength of 1.807 — their λ of 3.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Akhmat have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Zenit's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Zenit games / 45 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 78% | Draw 14% | Akhmat 8%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Akhmat 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (3.12 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 40% | Akhmat 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 78% | Draw 14% | Akhmat 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 62% | xG Zenit 3.12 / Akhmat 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.807 / def 0.673 | Akhmat attack 1.233 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Zenit (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.12
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Akhmat xG
62%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Akhmat kick off?
Zenit vs Akhmat kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit 1 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is Zenit vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Akhmat part of?
Zenit vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 78% chance of winning, Akhmat a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zenit and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
Record (3 meetings): Zenit 2W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 0W.
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in?
Zenit (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Akhmat (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.81) and Akhmat's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 3.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
78%
1.29
14%
7.16
8%
12.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.0%
Home win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.12
Zenit xG
Total xG
4.15
1.03
Akhmat xG
1.29
78%
Home win
7.16
14%
Draw
12.09
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
4%
22.60
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 3.12 expected goals for Zenit and 1.03 for Akhmat, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 31W 11D 3L from 45 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 20W 5D 20L across 45 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 20W 1D 1L from 22 games — 2.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.31 PPG overall — Zenit are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 8W 3D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.31 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat in 64%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 31W 11D 3L in their last 45 games (2.31 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 20W 5D 20L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Akhmat away?
Zenit's home record (2.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.77 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Zenit or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Akhmat in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and Akhmat runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Zenit
1
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 7, Akhmat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Akhmat?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 59%, Akhmat 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Zenit and 64% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Akhmat in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Zenit's games and 68% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Zenit's matches and 64% of Akhmat's.
Do Zenit and Akhmat tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat Zenit 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Zenit 1-2 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 3.12 xG and Akhmat 1.03 xG, a combined 4.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zenit fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Akhmat outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.81 / defence 0.67 against Akhmat attack 1.23 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 78% | Draw 14% | Akhmat 8%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a Akhmat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 58%, Akhmat 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Akhmat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.