Ural 0-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ural at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ural face Rubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Rubin at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Monday 6 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ural stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Ural at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ural are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Rubin have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Rubin have posted 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ural at 0.90 PPG versus Rubin's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Ural have won 1, Rubin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2022, ended Ural 3–0 Rubin — a Ural win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ural in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rubin in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 46% versus Rubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 54% | Rubin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.25 xG and Rubin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.854 / defence 1.289 | Rubin attack 0.885 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.081. Ural's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rubin's projected output up. Data: built from Ural's last 43 games and Rubin's last 13.
Result probabilities: Ural 36% | Draw 28% | Rubin 36%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.77 | Draw 3.53 | Rubin 2.81. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Ural 36% and Rubin 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ural 60% (last 10 home games) | Rubin 40% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 36% | Draw 28% | Rubin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ural 1.25 / Rubin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.854 / def 1.289 | Rubin attack 0.885 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Ural and Rubin level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Rubin xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ural vs Rubin FAQs
What time does Ural vs Rubin kick off?
Ural vs Rubin kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Rubin?
Ural 0 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Ural vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Rubin part of?
Ural vs Rubin is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 36% chance of winning, Rubin a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ural and Rubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ural vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.85x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ural's last 43 games and Rubin's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ural xG
Total xG
2.48
1.23
Rubin xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ural vs Rubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ural and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ural and 1.23 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ural come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 4D 5L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 1.23 PPG, Rubin on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ural's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across their last 5 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rubin have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 5 away games (2W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Rubin
Blended
Ural (Home) vs Rubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ural
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Ural vs Rubin Form FAQs
What form are Ural and Rubin in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Rubin have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Rubin away?
Rubin's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.00 PPG; Rubin away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Ural or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rubin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2021, when Rubin won Rubin 4-0 Ural.
Ural's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Ural vs Rubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Rubin?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ural have won 1, Rubin have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ural and Rubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 April 2024: Rubin 1-1 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 60%, Rubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ural and 60% for Rubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rubin in 40%; Ural have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ural vs Rubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ural and Rubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ural's recent matches and 40% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ural and Rubin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ural's matches and 60% of Rubin's.
Do Ural and Rubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Ural's recent matches and 60% of Rubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.25 xG and Rubin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Rubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 36% | Draw 28% | Rubin 36%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 54%, Rubin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 1.23 PPG, Rubin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.