FC Krasnodar 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Krasnodar face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov meet at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Current Form
FC Krasnodar's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
FC Krasnodar's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Krylia Sovetov's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC Krasnodar, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended FC Krasnodar 2–1 Krylia Sovetov — a FC Krasnodar win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 58% and Krylia Sovetov 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 58% | Krylia Sovetov 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Krasnodar surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Krylia Sovetov have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Krylia Sovetov surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while FC Krasnodar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.90 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.088 / defence 0.833 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.016 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.065. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 43 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 43.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 61% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.65 | Draw 4.56 | Krylia Sovetov 5.76. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 40% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 61% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC Krasnodar 1.90 / Krylia Sovetov 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.088 / def 0.833 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.016 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Krylia Sovetov xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
FC Krasnodar 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 61% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.02x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from FC Krasnodar's last 43 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.56
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.80
0.90
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
3%
38.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.90 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 43 games, going 21W 13D 9L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (14W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 13W 5D 3L across their last 21 home games, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 21 away games (5W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.37 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 63%.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC Krasnodar (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 21W 13D 9L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.10 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.90 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won Krylia Sovetov 0-6 FC Krasnodar on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Krasnodar
4
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have won 5, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Krylia Sovetov 2-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 57%, Krylia Sovetov 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for FC Krasnodar and 71% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Krasnodar's games and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 71% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.90 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.90 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 61% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 17%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 58%, Krylia Sovetov 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.