Spartak Moscow 3-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spartak Moscow face Rubin.

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Fixture Analysis

Spartak Moscow welcome Rubin to Lukoil Arena in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 13:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Spartak Moscow stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Spartak Moscow's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rubin — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Rubin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 1.60 PPG, Rubin 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Spartak Moscow's 30% BTTS rate and Rubin's 20% (from Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and Rubin's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Spartak Moscow, 1 for Rubin and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Spartak Moscow 4–1 Rubin — a Spartak Moscow win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Rubin in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 43% versus Rubin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 46% | Rubin 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.49 xG and Rubin 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 0.984 / defence 0.856 | Rubin attack 0.865 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.254. Data: built from Spartak Moscow's last 58 games and Rubin's last 28.

Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 50% | Draw 26% | Rubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 1.99 | Draw 3.81 | Rubin 4.24. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and Rubin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spartak Moscow 30% (last 10 home games) | Rubin 20% (last 10 away games).

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