FC Rostov 2-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC Rostov at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs Baltika encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC Rostov host Baltika at Rostov Arena in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Rostov have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, FC Rostov have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Baltika — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Baltika's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, FC Rostov have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, FC Rostov have won 0, Baltika 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended FC Rostov 2–2 Baltika — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

FC Rostov in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Baltika in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 57% versus Baltika 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 61% | Baltika 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.85 xG and Baltika 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.118 / defence 1.237 | Baltika attack 1.109 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.255. FC Rostov's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Baltika's projected output up. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 58 games and Baltika's last 28.

Result probabilities: FC Rostov 42% | Draw 22% | Baltika 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.41 | Draw 4.55 | Baltika 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Rostov's last 10 home games and Baltika's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 60% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights