Rubin 1-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rubin and CSKA Moscow meet at Ak Bars Arena in Premier League (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rubin's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Rubin have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2024, ended Rubin 2–2 CSKA Moscow — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 47% versus CSKA Moscow 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 42% | CSKA Moscow 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rubin surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while CSKA Moscow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.98 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.870 / defence 1.262 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.130 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.300. Rubin's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing CSKA Moscow's projected output up. Data: built from Rubin's last 38 games and CSKA Moscow's last 38.
Result probabilities: Rubin 19% | Draw 23% | CSKA Moscow 57%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 5.21 | Draw 4.28 | CSKA Moscow 1.74. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rubin's last 10 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rubin 60% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 19% | Draw 23% | CSKA Moscow 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Rubin 0.98 / CSKA Moscow 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.870 / def 1.262 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.130 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.85
CSKA Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rubin vs CSKA Moscow FAQs
What time does Rubin vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Rubin vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Rubin 1 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Rubin vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Rubin vs CSKA Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 19% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rubin and CSKA Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rubin vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rubin's attack rating (0.87) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.13x) against Rubin's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from Rubin's last 38 games and CSKA Moscow's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
19%
5.21
23%
4.28
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.83
1.85
CSKA Moscow xG
5.21
19%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
16%
6.39
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
3%
33.31
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rubin vs CSKA Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rubin and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Rubin and 1.85 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rubin come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 10D 14L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 1.61 PPG from 38 outings (16W 13D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Rubin against 1.61 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rubin's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across their last 19 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.37 points per game from their last 19 away games (6W 8D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rubin are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.87 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 61%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Rubin (Home) vs CSKA Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rubin
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Rubin vs CSKA Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Rubin and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 14W 10D 14L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 16W 13D 9L in their last 38 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.26 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Rubin or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won CSKA Moscow 6-1 Rubin on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Rubin
6
Draws
2
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Rubin vs CSKA Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and CSKA Moscow?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rubin have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: CSKA Moscow 1-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 53%, CSKA Moscow 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rubin) and 58% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 32%; Rubin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rubin vs CSKA Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rubin and CSKA Moscow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Rubin's games and 63% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rubin and CSKA Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rubin's recent games and 58% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and CSKA Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Rubin's recent matches and 68% of CSKA Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin and CSKA Moscow finished level at 1-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.98 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.85 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. CSKA Moscow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.13 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 19% | Draw 23% | CSKA Moscow 57%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 42%, CSKA Moscow 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.37 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.