CSKA Moscow 3-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat encounter.

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Full Analysis

VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Akhmat in Premier League (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Akhmat's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Akhmat's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 1.10 PPG lead over Akhmat (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for CSKA Moscow, 2 for Akhmat and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended CSKA Moscow 1–2 Akhmat — a Akhmat win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 62% versus Akhmat 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 54% | Akhmat 44%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while CSKA Moscow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.67 xG and Akhmat 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.240 / defence 0.784 | Akhmat attack 0.821 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.267. CSKA Moscow have a tight defence (rating 0.784), which is pulling Akhmat's projected output down. Data: built from CSKA Moscow's last 39 games and Akhmat's last 39.

Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 56% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 16%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.79 | Draw 3.60 | Akhmat 6.13. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 30% (last 10 away games).

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