Krylia Sovetov 3-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Samara Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 2W 4D 4L at Solidarnost Samara Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Nizhny Novgorod's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nizhny Novgorod have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Nizhny Novgorod arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 2W, Nizhny Novgorod 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 57% versus Nizhny Novgorod 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 60% | Nizhny Novgorod 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.38 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.864 / defence 1.207 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.898 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.218. Data: 35 Krylia Sovetov games / 35 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 35%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Nizhny Novgorod 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nizhny Novgorod (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Nizhny Novgorod 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.38 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.864 / def 1.207 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.898 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Nizhny Novgorod xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Krylia Sovetov 3 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 38% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (6 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 2 | Nizhny Novgorod 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.86x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.90x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.73
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.70
1.32
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.32 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 12W 8D 15L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 11W 5D 19L from 35 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.09 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 2D 12L from 17 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nizhny Novgorod's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.06 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.71 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nizhny Novgorod won 5-2 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
4
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Nizhny Novgorod have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 53%, Nizhny Novgorod 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Krylia Sovetov) and 29% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 41% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 29% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.38 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.32 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 35%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 60%, Nizhny Novgorod 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.26 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.