Dinamo Makhachkala 1-1 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akron at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Akron travel to Anzhi Arena to take on Dinamo Makhachkala. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dinamo Makhachkala — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at Anzhi Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Akron have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Akron have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.57 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dinamo Makhachkala 0.90 PPG, Akron 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Dinamo Makhachkala's 20% rate and Akron's 29% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Dinamo Makhachkala in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Akron in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 25% | Akron 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 0% | Akron 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.85 xG and Akron 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.599 / defence 0.924 | Akron attack 0.913 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.265. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.599 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 12 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | Draw 36% | Akron 38%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Akron 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akron are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akron offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 20% | Akron 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | Draw 36% | Akron 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.85 / Akron 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.599 / def 0.924 | Akron attack 0.913 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Akron (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Akron xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron?
Dinamo Makhachkala 1 - 1 Akron.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 26% chance of winning, Akron a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Akron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Akron (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dinamo Makhachkala's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Akron's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Akron's attack versus Dinamo Makhachkala's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akron Win
26%
3.80
36%
2.79
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.92
1.07
Akron xG
3.80
26%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 15.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.07 for Akron, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Dinamo Makhachkala have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 2W 5D 5L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akron's form line: 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dinamo Makhachkala on 0.92 PPG, Akron on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Akron have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Akron travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akron come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.42 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.33 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dinamo Makhachkala have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Akron have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Akron away?
Akron's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 0.80 PPG; Akron away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Akron in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Dinamo Makhachkala's record when hosting Akron specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
3
Draws
1
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron?
From 4 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, Akron have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Akron 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron?
Akron have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Akron see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dinamo Makhachkala 20% BTTS, Akron 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 40% for Akron.
On the defensive side: Akron in 60%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 60% of games; Akron in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Akron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 20% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 40% of Akron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.85 xG and Akron 1.07 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.60 / defence 0.92 against Akron attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | Draw 36% | Akron 38%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, Akron 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Akron's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.92 PPG, Akron 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.