Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Santa Clara face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio de São Miguel to face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Santa Clara (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Benfica have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Benfica arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Benfica, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Santa Clara — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Benfica — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 40% versus Benfica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 31% | Benfica 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.65 xG and Benfica 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.697 / defence 1.007 | Benfica attack 1.239 / defence 0.611. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.244. Santa Clara's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.611 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Santa Clara games / 55 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 16% | Draw 25% | Benfica 59%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Benfica 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 40% | Benfica 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 16% | Draw 25% | Benfica 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 38% | xG Santa Clara 0.65 / Benfica 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.697 / def 1.007 | Benfica attack 1.239 / def 0.611 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Benfica (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Benfica xG
38%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Benfica kick off?
Santa Clara vs Benfica kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Santa Clara 1 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Santa Clara vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Benfica part of?
Santa Clara vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 16% chance of winning, Benfica a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Santa Clara and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Benfica?
Record (7 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 6W.
What form are Santa Clara and Benfica in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.65. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.24x) against Santa Clara's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
16%
6.42
25%
3.94
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.21
1.55
Benfica xG
6.42
16%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
3%
30.32
31%
3.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 17.1 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.55 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santa Clara come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 11D 23L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.35 PPG from 55 outings (39W 12D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Santa Clara's home form reads 13W 4D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.22 points per game from 27 outings (18W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santa Clara are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Benfica in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 21W 11D 23L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Benfica have gone 39W 12D 4L in their last 55 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.59 PPG; Benfica away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-5 on 11 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santa Clara have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Santa Clara
1
Draws
7
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 0, Benfica have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 37%, Benfica 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Santa Clara) and 56% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Benfica in 48%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 44% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santa Clara's recent games and 56% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Benfica tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Benfica in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Santa Clara 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Santa Clara 1-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.65 xG and Benfica 1.55 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against Benfica attack 1.24 / defence 0.61, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 16% | Draw 25% | Benfica 59%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 31%, Benfica 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.