Pacos Ferreira 1-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacos Ferreira at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to take on Pacos Ferreira. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Pacos Ferreira have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Pacos Ferreira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pacos Ferreira, 1 for Santa Clara and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pacos Ferreira in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 46% versus Santa Clara 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 40% | Santa Clara 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.09 xG and Santa Clara 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.772 / defence 1.353 | Santa Clara attack 0.717 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.033. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Pacos Ferreira games / 57 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 33%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Santa Clara 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacos Ferreira as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 60% | Santa Clara 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.09 / Santa Clara 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.772 / def 1.353 | Santa Clara attack 0.717 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Santa Clara xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Pacos Ferreira 1 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 37% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara?
Record (3 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pacos Ferreira's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Pacos Ferreira's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.34
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.09
1.00
Santa Clara xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.00 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 14D 31L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 0.96 PPG from 57 outings (12W 19D 26L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacos Ferreira on 0.88 PPG, Santa Clara on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 5W 8D 15L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.54 points per game from 28 outings (2W 9D 17L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
The Goals Picture
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.96 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 12W 14D 31L in their last 57 games (0.88 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 12W 19D 26L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Santa Clara away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.82 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pacos Ferreira's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
1
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 2, Santa Clara have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 57%, Santa Clara 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pacos Ferreira) and 46% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 39% of games; Santa Clara in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 46% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 46% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacos Ferreira edge out Santa Clara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.09 xG and Santa Clara 1.00 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.77 / defence 1.35 against Santa Clara attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 33%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 40%, Santa Clara 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Santa Clara's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 0.88 PPG, Santa Clara 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.