Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Moreirense welcome GIL Vicente to Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 6W 2D 2L at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Moreirense are significantly better at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Moreirense at 1.20 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Moreirense, 2 for GIL Vicente and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Moreirense trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
GIL Vicente trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 56% versus GIL Vicente 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 54% | GIL Vicente 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.28 xG and GIL Vicente 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.906 / defence 1.044 | GIL Vicente attack 0.919 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.250. Data: 54 Moreirense games / 54 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 60% | GIL Vicente 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Moreirense 1.28 / GIL Vicente 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.906 / def 1.044 | GIL Vicente attack 0.919 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.20
GIL Vicente xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Moreirense 1 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 38% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Moreirense and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
Record (7 meetings): Moreirense 3W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 2W.
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Moreirense's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.68
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.48
1.20
GIL Vicente xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Moreirense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.20 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 19W 13D 22L from 54 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 20L across 54 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Moreirense on 1.30 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 12W 9D 5L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Moreirense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 6W 10D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 17W 17D 20L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or GIL Vicente away?
Moreirense's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.73 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Moreirense or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Moreirense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Moreirense
2
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 62%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Moreirense) and 42% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 31%; GIL Vicente in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Moreirense's games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Moreirense's recent games and 42% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Moreirense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Moreirense 1-2 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.28 xG and GIL Vicente 1.20 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 54%, GIL Vicente 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.30 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.