GIL Vicente 1-2 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GIL Vicente face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Boavista in Primeira Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
GIL Vicente have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Boavista (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Boavista away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for GIL Vicente, 0.70 for Boavista — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for GIL Vicente, 1 for Boavista and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended GIL Vicente 1–1 Boavista — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Boavista goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 51% versus Boavista 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 51% | Boavista 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.61 xG and Boavista 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.108 / defence 0.887 | Boavista attack 0.923 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.173. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 43 games and Boavista's last 43.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 53% | Draw 25% | Boavista 22%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.90 | Draw 4.02 | Boavista 4.45. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 home games) | Boavista 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 53% | Draw 25% | Boavista 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG GIL Vicente 1.61 / Boavista 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.108 / def 0.887 | Boavista attack 0.923 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Boavista xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Boavista FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Boavista kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Boavista kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
GIL Vicente 1 - 2 Boavista.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Boavista part of?
GIL Vicente vs Boavista is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 53% chance of winning, Boavista a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIL Vicente and Boavista will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will GIL Vicente vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.11) and Boavista's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.92x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 43 games and Boavista's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
53%
1.90
25%
4.02
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.57
0.96
Boavista xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
4%
22.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Boavista Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.96 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIL Vicente come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 13D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 0.88 PPG from 43 outings (8W 14D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for GIL Vicente against 0.88 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GIL Vicente's home form reads 8W 9D 4L across their last 21 home games, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 21 away games (3W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.02 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Boavista
Blended
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Boavista (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ GIL Vicente vs Boavista Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Boavista in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Boavista have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Boavista away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.57 PPG; Boavista away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between GIL Vicente and Boavista, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won GIL Vicente 3-0 Boavista on 9 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
2
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Boavista H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Boavista?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 4, Boavista have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Boavista last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2025: Boavista 1-3 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Boavista?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 52%, Boavista 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (GIL Vicente) and 48% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Boavista in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Boavista Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Boavista matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 57% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Boavista matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 48% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Boavista matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 71% of Boavista's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boavista defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.61 xG and Boavista 0.96 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Boavista attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 53% | Draw 25% | Boavista 22%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Boavista win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, Boavista 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.07 PPG, Boavista 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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