Farense 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Farense vs Benfica encounter.

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Analysis

Benfica make the trip to Estádio Do Algarve to face Farense in Primeira Liga (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Farense's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Farense's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Farense are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Benfica (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Benfica's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Benfica arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Benfica edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2024, ended Farense 1–3 Benfica — a Benfica win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Farense half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 52% versus Benfica 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 50% | Benfica 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Farense surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Benfica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.02 xG and Benfica 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.757 / defence 1.156 | Benfica attack 1.111 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.166. Farense's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Farense's last 43 games and Benfica's last 42.

Result probabilities: Farense 26% | Draw 26% | Benfica 48%. Fair-value odds: Farense 3.90 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 2.07. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Farense 50% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).

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