GIL Vicente 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Benfica (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIL Vicente face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Benfica at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for GIL Vicente.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–5 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 51% versus Benfica 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Benfica 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.12 xG and Benfica 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.847 / defence 1.044 | Benfica attack 1.246 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.101. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 GIL Vicente games / 59 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 60% | Benfica 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG GIL Vicente 1.12 / Benfica 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.847 / def 1.044 | Benfica attack 1.246 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Benfica (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Benfica xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Benfica kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
GIL Vicente 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Benfica part of?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 29% chance of winning, Benfica a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIL Vicente and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 5W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.85x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
29%
3.40
26%
3.80
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.55
1.43
Benfica xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.43 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 17D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 44W 7D 8L from 59 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.41 PPG from 29 outings (10W 11D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Benfica have gone 17W 5D 7L from 29 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.31 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 14W 17D 28L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while Benfica have gone 44W 7D 8L in their last 59 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.41 PPG; Benfica away: 1.93 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 1, Benfica have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 55%, Benfica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (GIL Vicente) and 52% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Benfica in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 52% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 52% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Benfica tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Benfica in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 0-3 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.12 xG and Benfica 1.43 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Benfica attack 1.25 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.