GIL Vicente 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Benfica (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as GIL Vicente face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Benfica at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 28 March 2025 at 20:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, GIL Vicente stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
In front of their own supporters, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Benfica have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Benfica have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for GIL Vicente.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended GIL Vicente 1–5 Benfica — a Benfica win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Benfica have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 51% versus Benfica 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Benfica 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIL Vicente surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Benfica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.12 xG and Benfica 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.847 / defence 1.044 | Benfica attack 1.246 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.101. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.246, which lifts their away xG to 1.43. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 59 games and Benfica's last 59.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.40 | Draw 3.80 | Benfica 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 60% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG GIL Vicente 1.12 / Benfica 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.847 / def 1.044 | Benfica attack 1.246 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Benfica (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Benfica xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Benfica FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Benfica kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
GIL Vicente 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Benfica part of?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 29% chance of winning, Benfica a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIL Vicente and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIL Vicente vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.85x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 59 games and Benfica's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
29%
3.40
26%
3.80
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.55
1.43
Benfica xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.43 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 17D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Benfica's form line: 44W 7D 8L from 59 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 11D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Benfica have gone 17W 5D 7L from their last 29 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.31 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Benfica
Blended
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ GIL Vicente vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 14W 17D 28L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while Benfica have gone 44W 7D 8L in their last 59 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.41 PPG; Benfica away: 1.93 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica have won the most recent 9 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won Benfica 5-1 GIL Vicente.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 1, Benfica have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 55%, Benfica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (GIL Vicente) and 52% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Benfica in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 52% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 52% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 72% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 0-3 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.12 xG and Benfica 1.43 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Benfica attack 1.25 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 24
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →