Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 0W 0D 3L across 3 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sporting CP have collected 3.00 PPG across 3 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sporting CP have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sporting CP are 3.00 PPG clear of Famalicao in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 67% versus Sporting CP 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Famalicao 67% | Sporting CP 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.15 xG and Sporting CP 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.917 / defence 1.275 | Sporting CP attack 0.968 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.079. Data: 3 Famalicao games / 3 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 35% | Sporting CP 37%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Sporting CP 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 67% | Sporting CP 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 35% | Sporting CP 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Famalicao 1.15 / Sporting CP 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.917 / def 1.275 | Sporting CP attack 0.968 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sporting CP xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Sporting CP kick off?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Famalicao 1 - 1 Sporting CP.
Where is Famalicao vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Sporting CP part of?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 28% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Famalicao and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in?
Famalicao (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L. Sporting CP (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (0.97x) against Famalicao's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
28%
3.54
35%
2.88
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.48
1.33
Sporting CP xG
3.54
28%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
7%
13.41
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.33 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sporting CP, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Sporting CP
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Famalicao or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Famalicao
1
Draws
9
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 0, Sporting CP have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 67%, Sporting CP 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Famalicao and 67% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 67%; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Famalicao's recent matches and 33% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Famalicao's matches and 67% of Sporting CP's.
Do Famalicao and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Sporting CP finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.15 xG and Sporting CP 1.33 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Sporting CP attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 28% | Draw 35% | Sporting CP 37%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 67%, Sporting CP 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Famalicao conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sporting CP managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.