Famalicao 2-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Famalicao's favour (1.00 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Famalicao, 1 for Pacos Ferreira and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Pacos Ferreira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 49% versus Pacos Ferreira 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 54% | Pacos Ferreira 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.52 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.111 / defence 0.919 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.853 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.096. Data: 43 Famalicao games / 43 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 53% | Draw 26% | Pacos Ferreira 21%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Pacos Ferreira 4.76. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | Pacos Ferreira 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 53% | Draw 26% | Pacos Ferreira 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Famalicao 1.52 / Pacos Ferreira 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.111 / def 0.919 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.853 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Pacos Ferreira xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Famalicao 2 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 53% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Pacos Ferreira 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Pacos Ferreira's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.85x) against Famalicao's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.87
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.38
0.86
Pacos Ferreira xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
21.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.86 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 13D 19L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira's form line: 9W 13D 21L from 43 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Famalicao against 0.93 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.81 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 13D 21L in their last 43 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Famalicao's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.33 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Famalicao go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Famalicao
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 48%, Pacos Ferreira 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Famalicao) and 24% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Famalicao's recent matches and 33% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Famalicao's recent games and 24% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Pacos Ferreira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Pacos Ferreira 2-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.52 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.86 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 53% | Draw 26% | Pacos Ferreira 21%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 54%, Pacos Ferreira 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.07 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.