Famalicao 5-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Famalicao take on Moreirense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Moreirense travel to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho to take on Famalicao. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Famalicao stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Moreirense — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Moreirense have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Famalicao 0.70 PPG, Moreirense 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Famalicao, 0 for Moreirense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Famalicao in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 57% versus Moreirense 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 57% | Moreirense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.76 xG and Moreirense 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.608 / defence 1.064 | Moreirense attack 0.554 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.398. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Famalicao games / 21 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 29% | Draw 39% | Moreirense 32%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Moreirense 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Famalicao's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | Moreirense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 29% | Draw 39% | Moreirense 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 32% | xG Famalicao 0.76 / Moreirense 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.608 / def 1.064 | Moreirense attack 0.554 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Moreirense xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Moreirense kick off?
Famalicao vs Moreirense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Famalicao 5 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Famalicao vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Moreirense part of?
Famalicao vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 29% chance of winning, Moreirense a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Famalicao and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Moreirense in?
Famalicao (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Moreirense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.49
39%
2.57
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.58
0.82
Moreirense xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 16.9 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.2%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.82 for Moreirense, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 8D 10L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 0.81 PPG, Moreirense on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Famalicao's home form reads 1W 5D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.05 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 3W 8D 10L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Moreirense away?
Famalicao's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.80 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Moreirense runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2022, when Famalicao won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Famalicao
5
Draws
1
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Moreirense?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Moreirense have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Famalicao 1-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Moreirense?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Moreirense 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Famalicao and 30% for Moreirense.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 40% of games; Moreirense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 40% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Famalicao's recent games and 30% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Moreirense tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Famalicao run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Moreirense 5-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.76 xG and Moreirense 0.82 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Moreirense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.61 / defence 1.06 against Moreirense attack 0.55 / defence 1.16, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 29% | Draw 39% | Moreirense 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 57%, Moreirense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Moreirense's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 0.81 PPG, Moreirense 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.