Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Casa Pia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Famalicao, 1.30 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Famalicao 3W, Casa Pia 2W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 46% versus Casa Pia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 48% | Casa Pia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.88 xG and Casa Pia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.137 / defence 0.866 | Casa Pia attack 0.793 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.217. Data: 56 Famalicao games / 56 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 62% | Draw 22% | Casa Pia 16%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Casa Pia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 62% | Draw 22% | Casa Pia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Famalicao 1.88 / Casa Pia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.137 / def 0.866 | Casa Pia attack 0.793 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Casa Pia xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Casa Pia kick off?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Famalicao 2 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Famalicao vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Casa Pia part of?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 62% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Famalicao and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Record (7 meetings): Famalicao 3W | Draws 2 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 1.14x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.79x) against Famalicao's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.57
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.71
0.83
Casa Pia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
40.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.83 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 21W 16D 19L from 56 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 23L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Famalicao against 1.20 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 12W 9D 7L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.14 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Casa Pia away?
Famalicao's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.61 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Famalicao
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 39%, Casa Pia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Famalicao) and 54% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 29% of games; Casa Pia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Famalicao's recent matches and 46% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Famalicao's recent games and 54% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Casa Pia 2-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.88 xG and Casa Pia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Casa Pia attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 62% | Draw 22% | Casa Pia 16%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, Casa Pia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.41 PPG, Casa Pia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.