Famalicao 0-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho to face Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 3 April 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Famalicao against 1.60 for Arouca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Famalicao, 2 for Arouca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 49% versus Arouca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 52% | Arouca 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.01 xG and Arouca 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.830 / defence 0.795 | Arouca attack 0.917 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.028. Famalicao's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Famalicao games / 59 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 41% | Draw 33% | Arouca 26%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Arouca 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Arouca's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 30% | Arouca 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 41% | Draw 33% | Arouca 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Famalicao 1.01 / Arouca 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.830 / def 0.795 | Arouca attack 0.917 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Arouca xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Arouca kick off?
Famalicao vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao 0 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Famalicao vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Arouca part of?
Famalicao vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 41% chance of winning, Arouca a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Famalicao and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
Record (3 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Arouca 2W.
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in?
Famalicao (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Arouca (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.92x) against Famalicao's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
41%
2.45
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.76
0.75
Arouca xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.75 for Arouca, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 19W 15D 25L from 59 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 24L across 59 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Famalicao against 1.17 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 12W 8D 9L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 5W 12D 12L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.00 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 19W 15D 25L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Arouca have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Arouca away?
Famalicao's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.52 PPG; Arouca away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Arouca in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
3
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Arouca have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 45%, Arouca 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Famalicao) and 41% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 31% of games; Arouca in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Famalicao's recent matches and 55% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Famalicao's recent games and 41% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Arouca tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Arouca in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Famalicao 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Famalicao 0-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.01 xG and Arouca 0.75 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Arouca attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 41% | Draw 33% | Arouca 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 52%, Arouca 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.22 PPG, Arouca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.