Estrela 1-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estrela at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estrela and GIL Vicente meet at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 March 2025 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Estrela (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Gomes, Estrela have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Estrela are significantly better at Estádio José Gomes than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Estrela, 1 for GIL Vicente and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Estrela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 47% versus GIL Vicente 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 44% | GIL Vicente 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.44 xG and GIL Vicente 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.924 / defence 1.157 | GIL Vicente attack 0.681 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.121. Data: 58 Estrela games / 57 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 49% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 23%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | GIL Vicente 4.35. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 60% | GIL Vicente 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 49% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Estrela 1.44 / GIL Vicente 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.924 / def 1.157 | GIL Vicente attack 0.681 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Estrela (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
0.88
GIL Vicente xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Estrela vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Estrela 1 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Estrela vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Estrela vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 49% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Estrela and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
Record (3 meetings): Estrela 1W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Estrela and GIL Vicente in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estrela's attack at 0.92x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.68x) against Estrela's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.59
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.32
0.88
GIL Vicente xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Estrela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Estrela and 0.88 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estrela come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 19D 26L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.02 PPG from 57 outings (14W 16D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Estrela against 1.02 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Estrela's home form reads 10W 6D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.61 points per game from 28 outings (4W 5D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estrela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estrela are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.14 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 12W 19D 26L in their last 57 games (0.96 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 14W 16D 27L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or GIL Vicente away?
Estrela's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.29 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estrela
3
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Estrela 2-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 57%, GIL Vicente 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Estrela) and 50% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Estrela's recent matches and 43% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Estrela's matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Estrela and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estrela and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 25, as Estrela and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.44 xG and GIL Vicente 0.88 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against GIL Vicente attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 49% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 23%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 44%, GIL Vicente 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 0.96 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.