Estoril 0-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Sporting CP (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Estoril face Sporting CP.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Estoril and Sporting CP meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Estoril (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Estoril's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Sporting CP have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Sporting CP away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sporting CP have the stronger record — 5 wins to Estoril's 0, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Jan 2024, ended Estoril 1–5 Sporting CP — a Sporting CP win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Sporting CP have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Sporting CP half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 47% versus Sporting CP 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 48% | Sporting CP 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estoril surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Sporting CP have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.04 xG and Sporting CP 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.887 / defence 0.867 | Sporting CP attack 1.530 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.268. Sporting CP bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Estoril's projected output down. Sporting CP have an above-average attack rating of 1.530, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from Estoril's last 66 games and Sporting CP's last 66.

Result probabilities: Estoril 23% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 52%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 4.26 | Draw 4.11 | Sporting CP 1.91. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sporting CP at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and Sporting CP's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estoril 40% (last 10 home games) | Sporting CP 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights