Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Moreirense.

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Match Analysis

Casa Pia host Moreirense at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Casa Pia have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Moreirense — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Moreirense away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Casa Pia at 1.20 PPG versus Moreirense's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Casa Pia have won 1, Moreirense 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2024, ended Casa Pia 4–1 Moreirense — a Casa Pia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Casa Pia in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Moreirense in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus Moreirense 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | Moreirense 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.95 xG and Moreirense 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.701 / defence 0.888 | Moreirense attack 0.701 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.267. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Moreirense's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 66 games and Moreirense's last 32.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 38% | Draw 33% | Moreirense 29%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.65 | Draw 2.99 | Moreirense 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Moreirense's lower xG of 0.79 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Casa Pia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Moreirense's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 40% (last 10 home games) | Moreirense 20% (last 10 away games).

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