Estoril 1-4 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Estoril welcome Santa Clara to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Estoril haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estoril, 2 for Santa Clara and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.58 xG and Santa Clara 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.917 / defence 0.931 | Santa Clara attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.236. Data: 34 Estoril games / 0 Santa Clara games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Estoril 51% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 23%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Santa Clara 4.35. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 51% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Estoril 1.58 / Santa Clara 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.917 / def 0.931 | Santa Clara attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Estoril (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Santa Clara xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Santa Clara kick off?
Estoril vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Estoril 1 - 4 Santa Clara.
Where is Estoril vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Santa Clara part of?
Estoril vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 51% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estoril and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
Record (4 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 2W.
What form are Estoril and Santa Clara in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Estoril (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.92x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.97
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.56
0.98
Santa Clara xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Estoril and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Estoril and 0.98 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Pre-Season
Santa Clara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Estoril won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estoril
1
Draws
4
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Santa Clara have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Santa Clara run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Estoril 1-4 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.58 xG and Santa Clara 0.98 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 0.98 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Santa Clara attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 51% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 23%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Santa Clara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.