Chaves 2-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Vizela at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chaves are significantly better at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira than their overall form suggests.
Vizela — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Chaves) versus 1.00 (Vizela). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chaves, 0 for Vizela and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vizela trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus Vizela 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 44% | Vizela 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.35 xG and Vizela 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 1.040 / defence 1.265 | Vizela attack 0.899 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.245. Data: 45 Chaves games / 45 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 36% | Draw 25% | Vizela 39%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Vizela 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vizela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chaves 60% | Vizela 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 36% | Draw 25% | Vizela 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Chaves 1.35 / Vizela 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 1.040 / def 1.265 | Vizela attack 0.899 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Vizela (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Vizela xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Vizela kick off?
Chaves vs Vizela kicked off at 20:30 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Vizela?
Chaves 2 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Chaves vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Vizela part of?
Chaves vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 36% chance of winning, Vizela a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chaves and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vizela?
Record (2 meetings): Chaves 0W | Draws 2 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Chaves and Vizela in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Vizela (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
36%
2.79
25%
3.93
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.77
1.42
Vizela xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Chaves and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Chaves and 1.42 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 11D 20L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela's form line: 13W 11D 21L from 45 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.18 PPG, Vizela on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Vizela have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Vizela in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Vizela have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Vizela away?
Chaves's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.23 PPG; Vizela away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Chaves or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Vizela in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chaves go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chaves's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chaves
2
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 2, Vizela have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when Vizela 0-1 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Vizela?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 64%, Vizela 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Chaves) and 36% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Vizela in 36%; Vizela in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Chaves's recent matches and 36% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Chaves's recent games and 36% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Vizela tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Vizela in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chaves defy the odds to beat Vizela 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Vizela 2-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.35 xG and Vizela 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 1.04 / defence 1.26 against Vizela attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 36% | Draw 25% | Vizela 39%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Chaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 44%, Vizela 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.18 PPG, Vizela 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.