Casa Pia 2-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Casa Pia take on Santa Clara.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Nacional to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Nacional, Casa Pia have gone 3W 2D 4L this season (9 games, 1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Santa Clara — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Casa Pia) versus 0.90 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Casa Pia's 22% and Santa Clara's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Casa Pia, 0 for Santa Clara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Casa Pia trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 12% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Santa Clara trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 35% versus Santa Clara 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 35% | Santa Clara 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.71 xG and Santa Clara 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.670 / defence 1.118 | Santa Clara attack 0.662 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 0.997. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Casa Pia games / 51 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 30% | Draw 38% | Santa Clara 32%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Santa Clara 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Casa Pia's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.45 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 27% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 22% | Santa Clara 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 30% | Draw 38% | Santa Clara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Casa Pia 0.71 / Santa Clara 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.670 / def 1.118 | Santa Clara attack 0.662 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.325 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Santa Clara xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kick off?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Casa Pia 2 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara part of?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 30% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Casa Pia and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Record (1 meetings): Casa Pia 0W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 25.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-0 (15.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.29
38%
2.67
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.45
0.74
Santa Clara xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.76
73%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.5 | 17.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.1%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.74 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 3D 6L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.65 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Santa Clara away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.38 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Casa Pia's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
2
Draws
3
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Santa Clara have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 12% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Casa Pia 25% BTTS, Santa Clara 12%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Casa Pia and 12% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Santa Clara in 38%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 38% of games; Santa Clara in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 12% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Casa Pia's recent games and 12% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 12% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Santa Clara 2-1 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.71 xG and Santa Clara 0.74 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.67 / defence 1.12 against Santa Clara attack 0.66 / defence 0.80, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 30% | Draw 38% | Santa Clara 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 35%, Santa Clara 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Santa Clara's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.