Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior plays host to Casa Pia versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 20 December 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Casa Pia have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arouca (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Arouca have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Casa Pia's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Casa Pia, 1 for Arouca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Casa Pia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus Arouca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 40% | Arouca 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.42 xG and Arouca 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.842 / defence 1.012 | Arouca attack 0.833 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.102. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Casa Pia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Casa Pia games / 48 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 48% | Draw 27% | Arouca 25%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Arouca 4.00. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 60% | Arouca 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 48% | Draw 27% | Arouca 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Casa Pia 1.42 / Arouca 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.842 / def 1.012 | Arouca attack 0.833 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Arouca xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Arouca kick off?
Casa Pia vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 20 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Casa Pia 3 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Casa Pia vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Arouca part of?
Casa Pia vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 48% chance of winning, Arouca a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Casa Pia and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Arouca?
Record (4 meetings): Casa Pia 2W | Draws 1 | Arouca 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and Arouca in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Arouca (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.83x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.71
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.35
0.93
Arouca xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.93 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 14W 13D 21L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 23L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.19 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 5W 8D 11L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Casa Pia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.29 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Arouca in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Arouca have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Arouca away?
Arouca's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.96 PPG; Arouca away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Casa Pia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Casa Pia
2
Draws
1
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Arouca?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 5, Arouca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Arouca?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 42%, Arouca 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Casa Pia) and 62% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 46% of games; Arouca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 54% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Casa Pia's recent games and 62% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Arouca tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Arouca in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Arouca 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.42 xG and Arouca 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Arouca attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 48% | Draw 27% | Arouca 25%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 40%, Arouca 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.15 PPG, Arouca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.