Boavista 1-1 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Boavista take on Portimonense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portimonense make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portimonense have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.75 PPG for Boavista against 1.50 for Portimonense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Boavista have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Portimonense in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Boavista 25% | Portimonense 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Boavista 50% | Portimonense 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.07 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 1.244 / defence 0.930 | Portimonense attack 1.070 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.092. Data: 4 Boavista games / 4 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 31% | Draw 38% | Portimonense 32%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Portimonense 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 25% | Portimonense 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 31% | Draw 38% | Portimonense 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Boavista 1.07 / Portimonense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 1.244 / def 0.930 | Portimonense attack 1.070 / def 0.864 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Portimonense xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Portimonense kick off?
Boavista vs Portimonense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Portimonense?
Boavista 1 - 1 Portimonense.
Where is Boavista vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Portimonense part of?
Boavista vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 31% chance of winning, Portimonense a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Boavista and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Portimonense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boavista and Portimonense in?
Boavista (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D. Portimonense (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Boavista's attack rating (1.24) and Portimonense's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (1.07x) against Boavista's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
38%
2.66
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.16
1.09
Portimonense xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Boavista and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Boavista and 1.09 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Boavista have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portimonense's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Boavista against 1.50 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boavista are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Portimonense in 0%.
Defensively: Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Portimonense in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Early Season
Portimonense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Boavista or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Portimonense in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 1-4 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Boavista
2
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, Boavista have won 3, Portimonense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Boavista 1-4 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Portimonense?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Portimonense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Boavista) and 0% (Portimonense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Boavista) and 25% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Boavista keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Portimonense in 50%; Portimonense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Boavista's recent matches and 0% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Boavista's recent games and 25% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Portimonense tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and Portimonense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista and Portimonense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.07 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 1.24 / defence 0.93 against Portimonense attack 1.07 / defence 0.86, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 31% | Draw 38% | Portimonense 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, Portimonense 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 12%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Portimonense's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.75 PPG, Portimonense 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.