Boavista 1-1 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs Farense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Boavista host Farense at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Boavista — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Farense have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Farense away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boavista at 0.70 PPG versus Farense's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Boavista, 2 for Farense and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Farense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Boavista in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Farense in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 56% versus Farense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 48% | Farense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 0.79 xG and Farense 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.576 / defence 1.252 | Farense attack 0.742 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.088. Boavista's attack strength of 0.576 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Boavista games / 46 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 28% | Draw 33% | Farense 40%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Farense 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Boavista's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Farense are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 30% | Farense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 28% | Draw 33% | Farense 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Boavista 0.79 / Farense 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.576 / def 1.252 | Farense attack 0.742 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Farense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Farense xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Farense kick off?
Boavista vs Farense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Farense?
Boavista 1 - 1 Farense.
Where is Boavista vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Farense part of?
Boavista vs Farense is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 28% chance of winning, Farense a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Boavista and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Farense?
Record (2 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 0 | Farense 2W.
What form are Boavista and Farense in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Farense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boavista's attack at 0.58x the league average against Farense's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
28%
3.62
33%
3.07
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Boavista xG
Total xG
1.80
1.01
Farense xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Boavista and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Boavista and 1.01 for Farense, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Boavista have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 9W 15D 22L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Farense's form line: 12W 9D 25L from 46 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boavista on 0.91 PPG, Farense on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Boavista have posted 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (4W 9D 9L).
On the road, Farense have gone 4W 5D 13L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Boavista are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Farense in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 9W 15D 22L in their last 46 games (0.91 PPG), while Farense have gone 12W 9D 25L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Farense away?
Boavista's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 0.95 PPG; Farense away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boavista and Farense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Boavista's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Boavista
1
Draws
2
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, Boavista have won 1, Farense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Farense 0-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Farense?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 54%, Farense 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Boavista) and 46% (Farense).
On the defensive side: Boavista have failed to score in 41% of games; Farense in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Farense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Boavista's recent matches and 54% of Farense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Boavista's recent games and 46% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Farense tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Farense in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and Farense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 13, as Boavista and Farense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 0.79 xG and Farense 1.01 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.58 / defence 1.25 against Farense attack 0.74 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 28% | Draw 33% | Farense 40%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 48%, Farense 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Farense's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 0.91 PPG, Farense 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.