Benfica 1-0 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Benfica (70%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Benfica face Vitória SC.

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Analysis & Preview

Vitória SC travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Benfica have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Vitória SC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Vitória SC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Benfica: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Vitória SC, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2024, ended Benfica 2–2 Vitória SC — a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Benfica and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Benfica trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Vitória SC trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 47% versus Vitória SC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Vitória SC 53%). Note also that Vitória SC surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Benfica recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.24 xG and Vitória SC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.763 / defence 0.775 | Vitória SC attack 0.945 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.114. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.763 — their 2.24 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.775), which is pulling Vitória SC's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 45 games and Vitória SC's last 46.

Result probabilities: Benfica 70% | Draw 18% | Vitória SC 12%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.43 | Draw 5.52 | Vitória SC 8.23. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and Vitória SC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Benfica 40% (last 10 home games) | Vitória SC 50% (last 10 away games).

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