AVS 1-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AVS vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves to face AVS in Primeira Liga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AVS have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
AVS's home record over their last 8 home games: 3W 2D 3L (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 8 home games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — AVS are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Benfica's record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Benfica have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
AVS half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 53% versus Benfica 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 47% | Benfica 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 0.81 xG and Benfica 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.674 / defence 1.339 | Benfica attack 1.228 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.071. AVS's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.228, which lifts their away xG to 1.76. AVS's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Benfica's projected output up. Data: built from AVS's last 13 games and Benfica's last 46.
Result probabilities: AVS 17% | Draw 23% | Benfica 60%. Fair-value odds: AVS 5.88 | Draw 4.32 | Benfica 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AVS 38% (last 8 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AVS vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AVS 17% | Draw 23% | Benfica 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG AVS 0.81 / Benfica 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: AVS attack 0.674 / def 1.339 | Benfica attack 1.228 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Benfica (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
AVS xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Benfica xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AVS vs Benfica FAQs
What time does AVS vs Benfica kick off?
AVS vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What was the final score in AVS vs Benfica?
AVS 1 - 1 Benfica.
Where is AVS vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What competition is AVS vs Benfica part of?
AVS vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win AVS vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives AVS a 17% chance of winning, Benfica a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in AVS vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AVS and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will AVS vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AVS's attack at 0.67x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.23x) against AVS's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from AVS's last 13 games and Benfica's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
17%
5.88
23%
4.32
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
AVS xG
Total xG
2.58
1.76
Benfica xG
5.88
17%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
3%
34.18
26%
3.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AVS vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AVS vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are AVS and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for AVS and 1.76 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AVS vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, AVS have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 4W 5D 6L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Benfica's form line: 11W 2D 2L from 15 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AVS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AVS have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 7 home games (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 3W 2D 2L from their last 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AVS are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.47 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AVS
Blended
Benfica
Blended
AVS (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AVS
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ AVS vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are AVS and Benfica in coming into this match?
AVS have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while Benfica have gone 11W 2D 2L in their last 15 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AVS at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AVS at home: 1.14 PPG; Benfica away: 1.57 PPG.
Have AVS or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
AVS have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Benfica have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won Benfica 6-0 AVS on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AVS have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AVS
1
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ AVS vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Benfica?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AVS have won 0, Benfica have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AVS and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Benfica 3-0 AVS.
Who has won more matches between AVS and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AVS see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AVS 29%, Benfica 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for AVS and 29% for Benfica.
On the defensive side: AVS keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AVS have failed to score in 43% of games; Benfica in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AVS home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AVS vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AVS and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AVS's recent matches and 43% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AVS and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of AVS's recent games and 29% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AVS and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 43% of AVS's recent matches and 71% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AVS and Benfica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AVS and Benfica finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.81 xG and Benfica 1.76 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.67 / defence 1.34 against Benfica attack 1.23 / defence 0.86, drawn from 13/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AVS 17% | Draw 23% | Benfica 60%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 47%, Benfica 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AVS's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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