Benfica 0-1 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Porto at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs FC Porto fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Benfica welcome FC Porto to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Porto stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC Porto away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.50 (FC Porto). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Benfica, 1 for FC Porto and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with FC Porto winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Porto in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 62% versus FC Porto 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 62% | FC Porto 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.16 xG and FC Porto 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.236 / defence 1.036 | FC Porto attack 1.165 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.174. Data: 32 Benfica games / 32 FC Porto games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 30% | Draw 29% | FC Porto 42%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | FC Porto 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Porto at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Porto offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 70% | FC Porto 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 30% | Draw 29% | FC Porto 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Benfica 1.16 / FC Porto 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.236 / def 1.036 | FC Porto attack 1.165 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.42
FC Porto xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs FC Porto kick off?
Benfica vs FC Porto kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs FC Porto?
Benfica 0 - 1 FC Porto.
Where is Benfica vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs FC Porto part of?
Benfica vs FC Porto is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 30% chance of winning, FC Porto a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benfica and FC Porto will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and FC Porto?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 0W | Draws 0 | FC Porto 1W.
What form are Benfica and FC Porto in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. FC Porto (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against FC Porto's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, FC Porto's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.50
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.57
1.42
FC Porto xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Benfica and 1.42 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs FC Porto?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 32 games, going 22W 5D 5L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, FC Porto sit at 2.66 PPG from 32 outings (27W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Benfica — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 10W 3D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Porto have taken 2.56 points per game from 16 outings (13W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 2.59 scored and 0.69 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against FC Porto's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Porto in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
FC Porto
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 22W 5D 5L in their last 32 games (2.22 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 27W 4D 1L in their last 32 (2.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.06 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Benfica or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Porto in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and FC Porto runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2024, when FC Porto won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting FC Porto specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Benfica
2
Draws
4
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and FC Porto?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, FC Porto have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and FC Porto last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Benfica 2-2 FC Porto.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 69%, FC Porto 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Benfica) and 56% (FC Porto). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Porto in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play FC Porto?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Benfica's games and 50% of FC Porto's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs FC Porto usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Benfica's matches and 56% of FC Porto's.
Do Benfica and FC Porto tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Porto in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Benfica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Benfica 0-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.16 xG and FC Porto 1.42 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Benfica fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against FC Porto attack 1.17 / defence 0.88, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 30% | Draw 29% | FC Porto 42%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, FC Porto 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Porto's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.66 PPG against 2.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.