Belenenses 2-3 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Belenenses vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Belenenses welcome Famalicao to Estádio Nacional. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 May 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Belenenses have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Belenenses at Estádio Nacional this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Famalicao stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Famalicao's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Belenenses at 1.00 PPG versus Famalicao's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Belenenses have won 0, Famalicao 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Belenenses in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Famalicao in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Belenenses 41% versus Famalicao 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Belenenses 31% | Famalicao 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 0.89 xG and Famalicao 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.700 / defence 1.212 | Famalicao attack 0.748 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.152. Belenenses's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Belenenses games / 32 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 29% | Draw 33% | Famalicao 37%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Famalicao 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Belenenses 30% | Famalicao 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 29% | Draw 33% | Famalicao 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Belenenses 0.89 / Famalicao 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.700 / def 1.212 | Famalicao attack 0.748 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Famalicao xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Famalicao kick off?
Belenenses vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Famalicao?
Belenenses 2 - 3 Famalicao.
Where is Belenenses vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Belenenses vs Famalicao part of?
Belenenses vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 29% chance of winning, Famalicao a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Belenenses and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Famalicao?
Record (1 meetings): Belenenses 0W | Draws 0 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Belenenses and Famalicao in?
Belenenses (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Belenenses's attack at 0.70x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
29%
3.43
33%
3.00
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Belenenses xG
Total xG
1.93
1.04
Famalicao xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 15.1 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.04 for Famalicao, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Belenenses come into this having played 32 games, going 5W 10D 17L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.03 PPG from 32 outings (7W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Belenenses on 0.78 PPG, Famalicao on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Belenenses's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Belenenses are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Current Season
Famalicao
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 5W 10D 17L in their last 32 games (0.78 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 7W 12D 13L in their last 32 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Famalicao away?
Belenenses's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 1.12 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Belenenses and Famalicao runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
0
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Famalicao?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, Famalicao have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2022, when Belenenses 2-3 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Belenenses 44%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Belenenses) and 56% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Belenenses have failed to score in 38% of games; Famalicao in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Belenenses's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Belenenses vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Belenenses's recent games and 56% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Belenenses and Famalicao tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Belenenses 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Belenenses 2-3 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 0.89 xG and Famalicao 1.04 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Belenenses beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Famalicao outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.70 / defence 1.21 against Famalicao attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 29% | Draw 33% | Famalicao 37%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 31%, Famalicao 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Belenenses 0.78 PPG, Famalicao 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Belenenses (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.