Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arouca stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Santa Clara's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Arouca) versus 1.90 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Arouca, 2 for Santa Clara and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Arouca in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 51% versus Santa Clara 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 64% | Santa Clara 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.55 xG and Santa Clara 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.342 / defence 0.898 | Santa Clara attack 0.869 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.292. Arouca carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Arouca games / 39 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 50% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 25%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Santa Clara 4.00. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Arouca 70% | Santa Clara 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 50% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Arouca 1.55 / Santa Clara 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.342 / def 0.898 | Santa Clara attack 0.869 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Arouca (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Santa Clara xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Santa Clara kick off?
Arouca vs Santa Clara kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Arouca 1 - 2 Santa Clara.
Where is Arouca vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Santa Clara part of?
Arouca vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 50% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arouca and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
Record (8 meetings): Arouca 3W | Draws 3 | Santa Clara 2W.
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in?
Arouca (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arouca's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.92
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.56
1.01
Santa Clara xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
19.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Arouca and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Arouca and 1.01 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 15W 7D 17L from 39 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 16L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arouca on 1.33 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 3W 8D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.05 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Early Season
Santa Clara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 15W 7D 17L in their last 39 games (1.33 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Santa Clara away?
Arouca's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.63 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Arouca or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Arouca's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Arouca
3
Draws
3
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
From 9 meetings on record, Arouca have won 3, Santa Clara have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 58%, Santa Clara 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Arouca) and 32% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Arouca's recent matches and 47% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Arouca's recent games and 32% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Arouca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Arouca 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.55 xG and Santa Clara 1.01 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.34 / defence 0.90 against Santa Clara attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 50% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 25%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Santa Clara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 64%, Santa Clara 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Santa Clara's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.33 PPG, Santa Clara 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.