Arouca 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arouca face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arouca — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's home record at Estádio Municipal de Arouca: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Arouca.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–5 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Benfica trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 48% versus Benfica 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 59% | Benfica 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.834 / defence 1.102 | Benfica attack 1.147 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.137. Data: 45 Arouca games / 44 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 30% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arouca 50% | Benfica 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 30% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Arouca 1.14 / Benfica 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.834 / def 1.102 | Benfica attack 1.147 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Benfica (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Benfica xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Benfica kick off?
Arouca vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Arouca 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Arouca vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Benfica part of?
Arouca vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 30% chance of winning, Benfica a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arouca and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 6W.
What form are Arouca and Benfica in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Arouca vs Benfica?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.83x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.82
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
Benfica xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Arouca and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Arouca and 1.44 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 14W 9D 21L from 44 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 33W 6D 5L across 44 games — 2.39 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 7W 4D 10L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 12W 4D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.39 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Benfica in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 14W 9D 21L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Benfica have gone 33W 6D 5L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.19 PPG; Benfica away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Arouca or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Benfica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arouca's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 43%, Benfica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Arouca) and 57% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 33%; Arouca have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Arouca's recent matches and 52% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Arouca's matches and 57% of Benfica's.
Do Arouca and Benfica tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Benfica in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Benfica attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 30% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 59%, Benfica 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.