Arouca 1-1 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 51%, yet in-form AVS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arouca vs AVS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arouca host AVS at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Primeira Liga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 5 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Arouca have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Arouca have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Arouca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AVS — last 9 games: 4W 2D 3L — 1.56 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings (33%).
On the road, AVS have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 away fixtures (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.56 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. AVS's 1.56 PPG return is 0.86 points per game ahead of Arouca's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Arouca in-play tendencies (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 56% of games.
AVS in-play tendencies (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 22% versus AVS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 56% | AVS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.62 xG and AVS 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.850 / defence 1.069 | AVS attack 0.876 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.099. AVS's defence rating of 1.460 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Arouca's projected output up. Data: built from Arouca's last 41 games and AVS's last 7.
Result probabilities: Arouca 51% | Draw 25% | AVS 24%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 1.95 | Draw 4.04 | AVS 4.17. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AVS (1.56 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though recent form (Arouca's last 10 home games and AVS's last 4 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arouca 50% (last 10 home games) | AVS 75% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 51% | Draw 25% | AVS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Arouca 1.62 / AVS 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.850 / def 1.069 | AVS attack 0.876 / def 1.460 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Arouca (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.03
AVS xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arouca vs AVS FAQs
What time does Arouca vs AVS kick off?
Arouca vs AVS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs AVS?
Arouca 1 - 1 AVS.
Where is Arouca vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs AVS part of?
Arouca vs AVS is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 51% chance of winning, AVS a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arouca and AVS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Arouca vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arouca's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against AVS's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Arouca's last 41 games and AVS's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.04
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.65
1.03
AVS xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arouca vs AVS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Arouca and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Arouca and 1.03 for AVS, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs AVS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 2W 0D 7L from 9 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
AVS, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 3L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AVS by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AVS's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across their last 4 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AVS's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arouca have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Early Season
AVS
Early Season
Arouca (Home) vs AVS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arouca
Early Season
AVS
Early Season
❓ Arouca vs AVS Form FAQs
What form are Arouca and AVS in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 2W 0D 7L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while AVS have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or AVS away?
Arouca's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 0.75 PPG; AVS away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Arouca or AVS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AVS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arouca have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Arouca's record when hosting AVS specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Arouca
1
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Arouca vs AVS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and AVS?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Arouca have won 3, AVS have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Arouca and AVS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: AVS 0-1 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and AVS?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 25%, AVS 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Arouca and 100% for AVS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arouca vs AVS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arouca and AVS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Arouca's recent matches and 75% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Arouca and AVS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Arouca's matches and 100% of AVS's.
Do Arouca and AVS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Arouca's recent matches and 100% of AVS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca and AVS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 8, as Arouca and AVS drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.62 xG and AVS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against AVS attack 0.88 / defence 1.46, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 51% | Draw 25% | AVS 24%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 56%, AVS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.
AVS's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AVS arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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