AVS 0-0 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AVS at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AVS vs Farense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Farense make the trip to Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves to face AVS in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 30 September 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
AVS's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 1D 3L from 8 games (1.62 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AVS have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AVS's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.62 — AVS are significantly better at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves than their overall form suggests.
Farense (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Farense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Farense away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AVS. A 1.02 PPG lead over Farense (1.62 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
AVS — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Farense — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 62% versus Farense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 62% | Farense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 1.16 xG and Farense 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.820 / defence 0.923 | Farense attack 0.801 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.143. Data: 6 AVS games / 40 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AVS 43% | Draw 30% | Farense 27%. Fair-value odds: AVS 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Farense 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AVS are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AVS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AVS 50% | Farense 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AVS vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AVS 43% | Draw 30% | Farense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG AVS 1.16 / Farense 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AVS attack 0.820 / def 0.923 | Farense attack 0.801 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: AVS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
AVS xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Farense xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AVS vs Farense kick off?
AVS vs Farense kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What was the final score in AVS vs Farense?
AVS 0 - 0 Farense.
Where is AVS vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What competition is AVS vs Farense part of?
AVS vs Farense is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win AVS vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives AVS a 43% chance of winning, Farense a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AVS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AVS vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AVS and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will AVS vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Farense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AVS and Farense in?
AVS (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Farense (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AVS's attack rating (0.82) and Farense's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Farense's attack (0.80x) against AVS's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AVS Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.30
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
AVS xG
Total xG
2.00
0.84
Farense xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AVS vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AVS and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AVS and 0.84 for Farense, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for AVS vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AVS's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AVS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Farense, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 8L across 8 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Farense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AVS by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Farense heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AVS have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — AVS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Farense's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AVS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AVS are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 0.38 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AVS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AVS
Early Season
Farense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AVS and Farense in coming into this match?
AVS have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Farense have gone 0W 0D 8L in their last 8 (0.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AVS at home or Farense away?
AVS's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AVS at home: 2.50 PPG; Farense away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AVS
1
Draws
0
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Farense?
From 2 meetings on record, AVS have won 1, Farense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AVS and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Farense 0-1 AVS.
Who has won more matches between AVS and Farense?
AVS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AVS tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AVS 50%, Farense 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for AVS and 25% for Farense.
On the defensive side: AVS keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Farense in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AVS home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AVS play Farense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AVS's recent matches and 25% of Farense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AVS vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of AVS's recent games and 25% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AVS and Farense tend to score early?
AVS have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Farense in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AVS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 7, as AVS and Farense drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.16 xG and Farense 0.84 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AVS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Farense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Farense attack 0.80 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AVS 43% | Draw 30% | Farense 27%, with AVS to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 62%, Farense 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AVS's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Farense's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AVS arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Farense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.