Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 0.80 PPG, Radomiak Radom 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Radomiak Radom 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 4–3 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Radomiak Radom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Radomiak Radom 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.62 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.838 / defence 0.951 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.033 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 0.986. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Zaglebie Lubin games / 42 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Radomiak Radom 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.62 / Radomiak Radom 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.838 / def 0.951 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.033 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.545 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Radomiak Radom xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 53% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 3W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.84) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
53%
1.90
25%
4.03
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.59
0.97
Radomiak Radom xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
22.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.97 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 10D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.12 PPG from 42 outings (13W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.24 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (6W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.31 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.50 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Radomiak Radom 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 60% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 60% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.62 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.97 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 43%, Radomiak Radom 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.