Radomiak Radom 0-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Radomiak Radom face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stadion Radomiaka — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 49% versus Raków Częstochowa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 56% | Raków Częstochowa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.18 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.229 / defence 1.182 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.983 / defence 0.648. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.059. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.648 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Radomiak Radom games / 44 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 37%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 70% | Raków Częstochowa 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.18 / Raków Częstochowa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.229 / def 1.182 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.983 / def 0.648 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Raków Częstochowa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 35% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (6 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.63
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.41
1.23
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.23 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 13W 8D 22L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 12L across 43 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.10 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 62%, Raków Częstochowa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Radomiak Radom) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 33%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Radomiak Radom's games and 57% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.18 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.23 / defence 1.18 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.98 / defence 0.65, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 37%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 56%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.