Radomiak Radom 0-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.

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Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Raków Częstochowa 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2024, ended Radomiak Radom 2–1 Raków Częstochowa — a Radomiak Radom win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 49% versus Raków Częstochowa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 56% | Raków Częstochowa 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.18 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.229 / defence 1.182 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.983 / defence 0.648. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.059. Raków Częstochowa bring a tight defence (rating 0.648, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Radomiak Radom's projected output down. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 43 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 44.

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 37%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.86 | Draw 3.63 | Raków Częstochowa 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 70% (last 10 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 30% (last 10 away games).

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