Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Zaglebie Lubin take on Gornik Zabrze.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Gornik Zabrze at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.40 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Gornik Zabrze 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 48% versus Gornik Zabrze 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Gornik Zabrze 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.94 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.724 / defence 1.101 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.908 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.020. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Zaglebie Lubin games / 61 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Draw 36% | Gornik Zabrze 34%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Gornik Zabrze 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Gornik Zabrze 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Draw 36% | Gornik Zabrze 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.94 / Gornik Zabrze 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.724 / def 1.101 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.908 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 2 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (3 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
36%
2.81
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
1.96
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.02 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 19W 12D 30L from 61 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 25L across 61 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.13 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 8W 8D 14L from 30 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.44 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 12D 30L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 20W 16D 25L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Gornik Zabrze's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.07 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zaglebie Lubin go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 57%, Gornik Zabrze 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 67% (Gornik Zabrze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 70% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 67% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.94 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.72 / defence 1.10 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Draw 36% | Gornik Zabrze 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 57%, Gornik Zabrze 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.13 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.