Widzew Łódź 2-3 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 17 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Raków Częstochowa are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Widzew Łódź, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 60% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 48% | Raków Częstochowa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 0.87 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.886 / defence 0.933 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.963 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.191. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Widzew Łódź games / 50 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 40%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 40% | Raków Częstochowa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Widzew Łódź 0.87 / Raków Częstochowa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.886 / def 0.933 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.963 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 3 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 29% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (4 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
29%
3.43
31%
3.21
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
1.94
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 15.4 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.07 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 11D 20L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.68 PPG from 50 outings (23W 15D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.36 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 13W 2D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.48 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 23W 15D 12L in their last 50 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.71 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 42%, Raków Częstochowa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Widzew Łódź) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 38%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Widzew Łódź 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Widzew Łódź 2-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 0.87 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.67, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 40%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 48%, Raków Częstochowa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.36 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.